E-commerce Growth: Who Really Benefits?

The e-commerce market is growing again after challenging times. Forecasts are looking positive. At the same time, competition is fiercer than ever. This suggests that established players are the ones benefiting most from this growth.

This raises an important question: How is the market developing for small online shops? This study by uptain addresses that question directly and reveals that the current situation is significantly more difficult for small online shops.

Revenues of small online shops are declining

Revenues of small online shops are currently declining. In the first quarter of 2025, the lowest median revenue of recent quarters was recorded. The typical online shop in this segment generated a revenue of €12,558.

This suggests that overall market growth is primarily benefiting larger shops. Small online shops are not profiting from this trend and instead face decreasing revenues.

Possible reasons include changing consumer behavior in uncertain times: customers are relying more on established retailers and well-known brands. Additionally, rising expectations such as free shipping, installment payments, or free returns are difficult for smaller shops to meet. Increasing competition in marketing—especially in SEO and online advertising—also reinforces economies of scale, which primarily benefit large companies.

Declining visitor numbers as a key challenge

An analysis of visitor numbers helps to better understand the situation. Alongside declining revenues, a drop in traffic can also be observed. These decreases in visitors typically precede changes in revenue.

This suggests that the decline in revenue is less likely due to internal shop issues, but rather because many consumers are not visiting these shops in the first place. Possible reasons include lower willingness to buy, a stronger preference for other shops, or the superior marketing presence of larger competitors.

Rising order values are offset by declining conversion rates

In addition to visitor numbers, revenue is influenced by order values and the conversion rate. This analysis shows a slight increase in the median order value. However, this effect is offset by a slight decline in the conversion rate, resulting in no increase in overall revenue.

Moreover, the higher order values may simply reflect inflation and price adjustments. In many industries, prices have risen in recent quarters, which is also evident in online shops.

Alternatively, the increased order values could suggest that consumers are currently buying more. However, there is little evidence to support this. On the contrary, the declining conversion rate points more toward reduced willingness to buy.

Expert commentary

Conclusion

While the overall e-commerce market is developing positively, the reality for small online shops looks quite different. Instead of growth, they are experiencing declining revenues. The analyzed metrics indicate not only a drop in consumer sentiment but also that small shops are increasingly losing customers to larger shops.

Competition in the market is intensifying. It is becoming more complex and costly to attract visitors to one’s own shop. At the same time, consumer expectations regarding payment options, shipping conditions, and return policies are rising. Large online retailers are generally well-equipped to meet these demands. For smaller shops, however, they present a significant challenge.